FC Porto vs. Estoril Praia: O/U 5.5
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (86%) · Under at 88¢ · $6K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 86%
$6.2K
$8.59
87.6¢ → 87.5¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 87.8¢ | $2.2K | $2.2K | -$7.42 | 59% 45819-32178 (77997) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 87.5¢ | $2.2K | $2.2K | +$12.57 | 50% 25104-24842 (49946) |
LU LuckyLoo | Underavg 87.3¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$3.25 | 49% 12639-13031 (25670) |
LE LeLynxMalynx | Underavg 87.4¢ | $150.32 | $150.5 | +$0.18 | 58% 28707-21186 (49893) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 88¢ | $46.2 | $46.2 | +$0 | 53% 4646-4187 (8833) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Underavg 88¢ | $4.4 | $4.38 | -$0.03 | 48% 2396-2627 (5023) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Overavg 12¢ | $0.6 | $0.63 | +$0.03 | 50% 33398-32968 (66366) |
Invested
$2,223.22
Value
$2.2K
PnL
-$7.42
Record
59%
45819-32178 (77997)
Invested
$2,151
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$12.57
Record
50%
25104-24842 (49946)
Invested
$1,639.34
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$3.25
Record
49%
12639-13031 (25670)
Invested
$150.32
Value
$150.5
PnL
+$0.18
Record
58%
28707-21186 (49893)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$46.2
Value
$46.2
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
4646-4187 (8833)
Invested
$4.4
Value
$4.38
PnL
-$0.03
Record
48%
2396-2627 (5023)
Invested
$0.6
Value
$0.63
PnL
+$0.03
Record
50%
33398-32968 (66366)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.