FC Porto vs. Estoril Praia: O/U 4.5

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 72¢ · $351 held · ended Oct 31

Over28¢Under72¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$350.87

Combined PnL

-$7.05

Smart Money Entry

76.2¢ → 72¢

-6% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over28%

Under72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$320.5

Total Shares430

Combined PnL-$7.09

Over2 traders

Total Value$30.38

Total Shares121

Combined PnL+$0.04

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	Underavg 76¢	$304	$298	-$6	55% 7136-5731 (12867)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 25¢	$29.25	$29.25	+$0	58% 28788-21225 (50013)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 79.2¢	$23.44	$22.5	-$1.09	48% 2424-2645 (5069)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 27¢	$1.09	$1.13	+$0.04	53% 4792-4312 (9104)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$304

Value

$298

PnL

-$6

Record

55%

7136-5731 (12867)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$29.25

Value

$29.25

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

28788-21225 (50013)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$23.44

Value

$22.5

PnL

-$1.09

Record

48%

2424-2645 (5069)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.09

Value

$1.13

PnL

+$0.04

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 72%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.0%

72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$35.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

135.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.