FC Porto vs. Estoril Praia: O/U 3.5

5 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 68¢ · $37K held · ended Oct 31

Over33¢Under67¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$36.6K

Combined PnL

-$864.25

Smart Money Entry

54.6¢ → 67.5¢

+24% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 15 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over33%

Under68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$25.5K

Total Shares50,825

Combined PnL$-2.3K

Over10 traders

Total Value$10.3K

Total Shares18,514

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Under — 33%Over — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH theowalcott	Underavg 54.5¢	$27.2K	$25.0K	$-2.2K	50% 109-110 (219)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Overavg 45.8¢	$3.9K	$5.5K	+$1.6K	50% 25208-24935 (50143)
us391CTR	Overavg 44¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$27.12	51% 1685-1650 (3335)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Overavg 46¢	$1.8K	$1.6K	-$178.18	49% 12681-13099 (25780)
HRTradingARB<$100	Overavg 44.2¢	$905.45	$819.41	-$86.04	53% 4792-4312 (9104)
└ Over leg	Overavg 44.2¢	$531.04	$456.7	-$74.35
└ Under leg	Underavg 64¢	$374.41	$362.71	-$11.69
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 46.3¢	$555	$473.57	+$52.65	58% 42027-30514 (72541)
OM omnibus-076daa	Underavg 59¢	$247.75	$245.65	-$2.1	50% 19212-19597 (38809)
OD Oddstorm	Underavg 64¢	$243.96	$191.38	-$52.59	39% 426-672 (1098)
BE berlinskiesCTR<$100	Overavg 44¢	$70	$69.2	-$0.8	58% 5858-4296 (10154)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 46.6¢	$46.56	$50	+$3.44	58% 28788-21225 (50013)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Overavg 51.2¢	$58.32	$47.31	-$11.01	50% 10919-10736 (21655)
SL slimjoeCTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$17.55	$19.5	+$1.95	51% 6505-6166 (12671)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$15.98	$13.6	-$2.38	49% 8081-8480 (16561)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Underavg 39¢	$5.85	$9.15	+$3.3	59% 45969-32302 (78271)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 62.5¢	$6.25	$5	-$1.25	48% 2424-2645 (5069)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Overavg 44¢	$4.4	$4.35	-$0.05	51% 1460-1410 (2870)

theowalcott

Under

Invested

$27,245.56

Value

$25.0K

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

50%

109-110 (219)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Over

Invested

$3,942.15

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

50%

25208-24935 (50143)

us391CTR

Over

Invested

$2,498.09

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$27.12

Record

51%

1685-1650 (3335)

LuckyLooCTR

Over

Invested

$1,823.11

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$178.18

Record

49%

12681-13099 (25780)

HRTradingARB<$100

Over

Invested

$905.45

Value

$819.41

PnL

-$86.04

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

Both legs:

Over$531.0444.2¢-$74.35

Under$374.4164¢-$11.69

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$555

Value

$473.57

PnL

+$52.65

Record

58%

42027-30514 (72541)

omnibus-076daa

Under

Invested

$247.75

Value

$245.65

PnL

-$2.1

Record

50%

19212-19597 (38809)

Oddstorm

Under

Invested

$243.96

Value

$191.38

PnL

-$52.59

Record

39%

426-672 (1098)

berlinskiesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$70

Value

$69.2

PnL

-$0.8

Record

58%

5858-4296 (10154)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$46.56

Value

$50

PnL

+$3.44

Record

58%

28788-21225 (50013)

fooooolCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$58.32

Value

$47.31

PnL

-$11.01

Record

50%

10919-10736 (21655)

slimjoeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$17.55

Value

$19.5

PnL

+$1.95

Record

51%

6505-6166 (12671)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$15.98

Value

$13.6

PnL

-$2.38

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

UpTheBlues<$100

Under

Invested

$5.85

Value

$9.15

PnL

+$3.3

Record

59%

45969-32302 (78271)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$6.25

Value

PnL

-$1.25

Record

48%

2424-2645 (5069)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.4

Value

$4.35

PnL

-$0.05

Record

51%

1460-1410 (2870)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 68%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 15 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.