FC Porto vs. Estoril Praia: O/U 2.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 57¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 60%
$2.1K
$70.73
56.1¢ → 57.5¢
+3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BB bbbetk | Overavg 56¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$60 | 51% 150-147 (297) |
 HRTrading | Overavg 56¢ | $259.13 | $266.9 | +$7.77 | 52% 3994-3636 (7630) |
OD Oddstorm | Overavg 57¢ | $85.5 | $137.41 | +$3.84 | 38% 377-619 (996) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 43.6¢ | $104.28 | $102.74 | -$1.54 | 58% 41483-30105 (71588) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Underavg 42¢ | $4.2 | $4.85 | +$0.65 | 47% 2255-2545 (4800) |
Invested
$1,485
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$60
Record
51%
150-147 (297)
HRTradingInvested
$259.13
Value
$266.9
PnL
+$7.77
Record
52%
3994-3636 (7630)
Invested
$85.5
Value
$137.41
PnL
+$3.84
Record
38%
377-619 (996)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$104.28
Value
$102.74
PnL
-$1.54
Record
58%
41483-30105 (71588)
Invested
$4.2
Value
$4.85
PnL
+$0.65
Record
47%
2255-2545 (4800)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.