FC Porto vs. Estoril Praia: O/U 1.5
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (38%) · Over at 88¢ · $464 held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Over
8
Over 38%
$464.28
-$206.12
80.4¢ → 88¢
+10% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Overavg 74¢ | $266.77 | $180.25 | -$86.52 | 50% 33488-33047 (66535) |
 Socialista | Overavg 87¢ | $261 | $150 | -$111 | 63% 2700-1603 (4303) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Underavg 8.1¢ | $78.42 | $91.51 | +$13.09 | 59% 45969-32302 (78271) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 87¢ | $41.75 | $24 | -$17.76 | 58% 28788-21225 (50013) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Underavg 5.9¢ | $20.35 | $15.13 | -$5.22 | 50% 25208-24935 (50143) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Underavg 20¢ | $1 | $2.5 | +$1.5 | 48% 2424-2645 (5069) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 13¢ | $1.04 | $0.79 | -$0.25 | 53% 4792-4312 (9104) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Underavg 7.2¢ | $0.08 | $0.11 | +$0.03 | 49% 8081-8480 (16561) |
Invested
$266.77
Value
$180.25
PnL
-$86.52
Record
50%
33488-33047 (66535)
SocialistaInvested
$261
Value
$150
PnL
-$111
Record
63%
2700-1603 (4303)
Invested
$78.42
Value
$91.51
PnL
+$13.09
Record
59%
45969-32302 (78271)
Invested
$41.75
Value
$24
PnL
-$17.76
Record
58%
28788-21225 (50013)
Invested
$20.35
Value
$15.13
PnL
-$5.22
Record
50%
25208-24935 (50143)
Invested
$1
Value
$2.5
PnL
+$1.5
Record
48%
2424-2645 (5069)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.04
Value
$0.79
PnL
-$0.25
Record
53%
4792-4312 (9104)
Invested
$0.08
Value
$0.11
PnL
+$0.03
Record
49%
8081-8480 (16561)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.