FC Porto vs. Estoril Praia: O/U 0.5
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (75%) · Over at 100¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Over
4
Over 75%
$5.1K
$12.42
97.3¢ → 100¢
+3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 fxwd12345 | Overavg 97.3¢ | $4.9K | $2.5K | $-2.3K | 69% 1507-687 (2194) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 2.7¢ | $167.69 | $2.5K | +$2.4K | 59% 45969-32302 (78271) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 97.3¢ | $74.42 | $39.01 | -$35.41 | 58% 28788-21225 (50013) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Overavg 96¢ | $5.1 | $5.15 | +$0.05 | 50% 25208-24935 (50143) |
fxwd12345Invested
$4,865
Value
$2.5K
PnL
$-2.3K
Record
69%
1507-687 (2194)
Invested
$167.69
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$2.4K
Record
59%
45969-32302 (78271)
Invested
$74.42
Value
$39.01
PnL
-$35.41
Record
58%
28788-21225 (50013)
Invested
$5.1
Value
$5.15
PnL
+$0.05
Record
50%
25208-24935 (50143)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.