Spread: FC Porto (-2.5)

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Estoril Praia (90%) · Estoril Praia at 55¢ · $10K held · ended Oct 31

FC Porto46¢Estoril Praia54¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Estoril Praia

Consensus Traders

Estoril Praia 90%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.5K

Combined PnL

-$230.7

Smart Money Entry

56.8¢ → 54.5¢

-4% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralEstoril Praia at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Estoril Praia

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

FC Porto46%

Estoril Praia55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Estoril Praia9 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares9,619

Combined PnL-$234.43

FC Porto1 trader

Total Value$18.46

Total Shares36

Combined PnL+$3.73

Estoril Praia — 90%FC Porto — 10%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	FC Portoavg 43.8¢	$5.3K	$5.2K	-$76.19	50% 19212-19597 (38809)
└ FC Porto leg	FC Portoavg 43.8¢	$4.1K	$4.0K	-$76.19
└ Estoril Praia leg	Estoril Praiaavg 57¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$0
LZ lzh1	Estoril Praiaavg 59¢	$2.4K	$2.3K	-$40	43% 467-623 (1090)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542	Estoril Praiaavg 56¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$0	47% 2521-2820 (5341)
VeryLucky888	Estoril Praiaavg 56.7¢	$1.0K	$551.86	-$202.56	58% 42027-30514 (72541)
RN1	Estoril Praiaavg 46¢	$276	$276	+$0	54% 56681-48879 (105560)
0xheavy888	Estoril Praiaavg 57¢	$228	$230	+$2	55% 7136-5731 (12867)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Estoril Praiaavg 55.4¢	$94.79	$99.18	+$4.39	58% 28788-21225 (50013)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Estoril Praiaavg 56¢	$28	$29	+$1	50% 3877-3837 (7714)
SL slimjoe<$100	Estoril Praiaavg 56¢	$26.32	$27.26	+$0.94	51% 6505-6166 (12671)
HRTradingCTR<$100	FC Portoavg 40.7¢	$14.73	$18.46	+$3.73	53% 4792-4312 (9104)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Estoril Praiaavg 66¢	$5.2	$5	-$0.2	48% 2424-2645 (5069)

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

FC Porto

Invested

$5,295.66

Value

$5.2K

PnL

-$76.19

Record

50%

19212-19597 (38809)

Both legs:

FC Porto$4,084.4743.8¢-$76.19

Estoril Praia$1,211.1957¢+$0

lzh1

Estoril Praia

Invested

$2,360

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$40

Record

43%

467-623 (1090)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542

Estoril Praia

Invested

$1,680

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

2521-2820 (5341)

VeryLucky888

Estoril Praia

Invested

$1,014.49

Value

$551.86

PnL

-$202.56

Record

58%

42027-30514 (72541)

RN1

Estoril Praia

Invested

$276

Value

$276

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

56681-48879 (105560)

0xheavy888

Estoril Praia

Invested

$228

Value

$230

PnL

+$2

Record

55%

7136-5731 (12867)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Estoril Praia

Invested

$94.79

Value

$99.18

PnL

+$4.39

Record

58%

28788-21225 (50013)

NatoAlfista<$100

Estoril Praia

Invested

$28

Value

$29

PnL

+$1

Record

50%

3877-3837 (7714)

slimjoe<$100

Estoril Praia

Invested

$26.32

Value

$27.26

PnL

+$0.94

Record

51%

6505-6166 (12671)

HRTradingCTR<$100

FC Porto

Invested

$14.73

Value

$18.46

PnL

+$3.73

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

ameisgoat11<$100

Estoril Praia

Invested

$5.2

Value

PnL

-$0.2

Record

48%

2424-2645 (5069)

Research grade

NeutralEstoril Praia at 55%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Estoril Praia

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Estoril Praia wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.