Spread: FC Porto (-1.5)

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold FC Porto (42%) · FC Porto at 75¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31

FC Porto75¢Estoril Praia25¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

FC Porto

Consensus Traders

FC Porto 42%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

-$51.2

Smart Money Entry

66¢ → 75¢

+14% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralFC Porto at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

FC Porto

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

FC Porto75%

Estoril Praia25%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

FC Porto5 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,704

Combined PnL+$47.76

Estoril Praia7 traders

Total Value$390.35

Total Shares1,516

Combined PnL-$98.96

FC Porto — 42%Estoril Praia — 58%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	FC Portoavg 65.8¢	$874.84	$901.29	+$26.45	59% 45969-32302 (78271)
0xheavy888	FC Portoavg 62.4¢	$352.82	$369.77	+$16.95	55% 7136-5731 (12867)
GO GoalLineGhost	FC Portoavg 74.8¢	$170.46	$182.4	+$11.94	50% 25208-24935 (50143)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Estoril Praiaavg 33.4¢	$78.89	$119.18	+$40.29	58% 28788-21225 (50013)
VeryLucky888CTR	Estoril Praiaavg 33¢	$198	$108.4	-$79.58	58% 42027-30514 (72541)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Estoril Praiaavg 35.5¢	$78.71	$65.49	-$13.21	49% 8081-8480 (16561)
poshposhCTR	Estoril Praiaavg 34.5¢	$103.5	$55.5	-$48	59% 10257-7240 (17497)
RN1CTR<$100	Estoril Praiaavg 19¢	$38	$40	+$2	54% 56681-48879 (105560)
OD Oddstorm<$100	FC Portoavg 67¢	$26.8	$19.8	-$7	39% 426-672 (1098)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	FC Portoavg 61¢	$3.05	$2.48	-$0.57	48% 2424-2645 (5069)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Estoril Praiaavg 19¢	$1.06	$1.03	-$0.03	49% 12681-13099 (25780)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Estoril Praiaavg 34¢	$1.19	$0.75	-$0.44	53% 4792-4312 (9104)

UpTheBlues

FC Porto

Invested

$874.84

Value

$901.29

PnL

+$26.45

Record

59%

45969-32302 (78271)

0xheavy888

FC Porto

Invested

$352.82

Value

$369.77

PnL

+$16.95

Record

55%

7136-5731 (12867)

GoalLineGhost

FC Porto

Invested

$170.46

Value

$182.4

PnL

+$11.94

Record

50%

25208-24935 (50143)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Estoril Praia

Invested

$78.89

Value

$119.18

PnL

+$40.29

Record

58%

28788-21225 (50013)

VeryLucky888CTR

Estoril Praia

Invested

$198

Value

$108.4

PnL

-$79.58

Record

58%

42027-30514 (72541)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Estoril Praia

Invested

$78.71

Value

$65.49

PnL

-$13.21

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

poshposhCTR

Estoril Praia

Invested

$103.5

Value

$55.5

PnL

-$48

Record

59%

10257-7240 (17497)

RN1CTR<$100

Estoril Praia

Invested

$38

Value

$40

PnL

+$2

Record

54%

56681-48879 (105560)

Oddstorm<$100

FC Porto

Invested

$26.8

Value

$19.8

PnL

-$7

Record

39%

426-672 (1098)

ameisgoat11<$100

FC Porto

Invested

$3.05

Value

$2.48

PnL

-$0.57

Record

48%

2424-2645 (5069)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Estoril Praia

Invested

$1.06

Value

$1.03

PnL

-$0.03

Record

49%

12681-13099 (25780)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Estoril Praia

Invested

$1.19

Value

$0.75

PnL

-$0.44

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

Research grade

NeutralFC Porto at 75%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

FC Porto

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that FC Porto wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.9%

75.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.