Will FC Porto win on 2026-10-31?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 83¢ · $8K held · ends Oct 31

Yes83¢No17¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$8.3K

Combined PnL

$322.83

Smart Money Entry

79.7¢ → 83¢

+4% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes83%

No17%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$8.3K

Total Shares9,904

Combined PnL+$325.2

No2 traders

Total Value$39.82

Total Shares226

Combined PnL-$2.37

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO notgoodluck	Yesavg 79.3¢	$5.9K	$6.2K	+$313.08	61% 212-133 (345)
DA darkumbreon88	Yesavg 81¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$12.12	65% 1707-928 (2635)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 20.4¢	$39.95	$38.22	-$1.97	53% 4540-4093 (8633)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Noavg 20¢	$2	$1.6	-$0.4	48% 2374-2612 (4986)

notgoodluck

Yes

Invested

$5,932.7

Value

$6.2K

PnL

+$313.08

Record

61%

212-133 (345)

darkumbreon88

Yes

Invested

$1,963.35

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$12.12

Record

65%

1707-928 (2635)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$39.95

Value

$38.22

PnL

-$1.97

Record

53%

4540-4093 (8633)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Invested

Value

$1.6

PnL

-$0.4

Record

48%

2374-2612 (4986)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 83%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.7%

83.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.