Will Moreirense FC win on 2026-10-31?

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (82%) · No at 77¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 31

Yes24¢No76¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 82%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

$24.32

Smart Money Entry

66.9¢ → 76.5¢

+14% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes24%

No77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,472

Combined PnL+$31.88

Yes2 traders

Total Value$39.28

Total Shares82

Combined PnL-$7.56

No — 82%Yes — 18%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Noavg 66¢	$614.93	$633.56	+$32.61	53% 5632-4972 (10604)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 76¢	$150.23	$150.23	-$0	50% 25104-24842 (49946)
FO foooool<$100	Noavg 72.4¢	$82.19	$85.69	+$3.5	50% 10864-10681 (21545)
0xheavy888<$100	Noavg 69¢	$68.91	$69.41	-$1.5	55% 7125-5714 (12839)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Yesavg 61.7¢	$43.2	$35.7	-$7.5	59% 30480-21187 (51667)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 35.2¢	$21.54	$26.89	+$5.36	49% 7982-8322 (16304)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Noavg 70¢	$26.84	$16.87	-$9.97	59% 45819-32178 (77997)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 66.8¢	$26.9	$14.7	+$1.6	58% 41929-30449 (72378)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$3.64	$3.58	-$0.06	51% 6009-5701 (11710)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Noavg 63¢	$3.15	$3.45	+$0.3	58% 18665-13716 (32381)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Noavg 69¢	$3.45	$3.4	-$0.03	48% 2396-2627 (5023)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Invested

$614.93

Value

$633.56

PnL

+$32.61

Record

53%

5632-4972 (10604)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$150.23

Value

$150.23

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

25104-24842 (49946)

foooool<$100

Invested

$82.19

Value

$85.69

PnL

+$3.5

Record

50%

10864-10681 (21545)

0xheavy888<$100

Invested

$68.91

Value

$69.41

PnL

-$1.5

Record

55%

7125-5714 (12839)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.2

Value

$35.7

PnL

-$7.5

Record

59%

30480-21187 (51667)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$21.54

Value

$26.89

PnL

+$5.36

Record

49%

7982-8322 (16304)

UpTheBlues<$100

Invested

$26.84

Value

$16.87

PnL

-$9.97

Record

59%

45819-32178 (77997)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$26.9

Value

$14.7

PnL

+$1.6

Record

58%

41929-30449 (72378)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.64

Value

$3.58

PnL

-$0.06

Record

51%

6009-5701 (11710)

BillBenter2026<$100

Invested

$3.15

Value

$3.45

PnL

+$0.3

Record

58%

18665-13716 (32381)

ameisgoat11<$100

Invested

$3.45

Value

$3.4

PnL

-$0.03

Record

48%

2396-2627 (5023)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 77%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.4%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.