Will CF Estrela da Amadora win on 2026-10-31?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 79¢ · $500 held · ended Oct 31

Yes22¢No78¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$499.72

Combined PnL

$32.88

Smart Money Entry

67.3¢ → 78.5¢

+17% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes22%

No79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$491.31

Total Shares557

Combined PnL+$32.31

Yes4 traders

Total Value$8.41

Total Shares37

Combined PnL+$0.57

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 63.4¢	$278.12	$299.93	+$21.81	59% 45819-32178 (77997)
FO foooool	Noavg 74.4¢	$149.57	$153.77	+$4.2	50% 10864-10681 (21545)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 65¢	$16.4	$22.34	+$5.94	53% 4646-4187 (8833)
CA Cannae<$100	Noavg 60¢	$14.79	$15.28	+$0.37	53% 15956-14132 (30088)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Yesavg 39¢	$3	$2.93	-$0.08	53% 2174-1925 (4099)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.5¢	$2.05	$2.25	+$0.2	49% 7982-8322 (16304)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Yesavg 39¢	$1.95	$1.9	-$0.03	48% 2396-2627 (5023)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$0.85	$1.33	+$0.48	58% 18665-13716 (32381)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$278.12

Value

$299.93

PnL

+$21.81

Record

59%

45819-32178 (77997)

foooool

Invested

$149.57

Value

$153.77

PnL

+$4.2

Record

50%

10864-10681 (21545)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$16.4

Value

$22.34

PnL

+$5.94

Record

53%

4646-4187 (8833)

Cannae<$100

Invested

$14.79

Value

$15.28

PnL

+$0.37

Record

53%

15956-14132 (30088)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$2.93

PnL

-$0.08

Record

53%

2174-1925 (4099)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.05

Value

$2.25

PnL

+$0.2

Record

49%

7982-8322 (16304)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.95

Value

$1.9

PnL

-$0.03

Record

48%

2396-2627 (5023)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.85

Value

$1.33

PnL

+$0.48

Record

58%

18665-13716 (32381)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 79%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.