CS Marítimo vs. CD Santa Clara: O/U 3.5
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (56%) · Under at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Under
9
Under 56%
$1.9K
-$90.88
83.5¢ → 100¢
+20% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 82¢ | $843.36 | $872.11 | +$28.75 | 50% 25689-25525 (51214) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 89.2¢ | $558.85 | $603.26 | +$44.41 | 59% 46944-33223 (80167) |
 0xheavy888 | Underavg 80.3¢ | $481.96 | $299.97 | -$181.98 | 55% 7319-5884 (13203) |
FO fooooolCTR | Overavg 14.6¢ | $64.29 | $116.87 | +$52.58 | 50% 11182-10999 (22181) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Underavg 81¢ | $54.82 | $33.84 | -$20.98 | 58% 42718-31089 (73807) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Overavg 18¢ | $1.8 | $5 | +$3.2 | 50% 33888-33462 (67350) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Overavg 23¢ | $6.53 | $3.22 | -$3.32 | 48% 8991-9637 (18628) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Underavg 82¢ | $4.1 | $2.5 | -$1.6 | 52% 7507-6801 (14308) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 18.1¢ | $11.98 | $0.04 | -$11.94 | 53% 5677-5082 (10759) |
Invested
$843.36
Value
$872.11
PnL
+$28.75
Record
50%
25689-25525 (51214)
Invested
$558.85
Value
$603.26
PnL
+$44.41
Record
59%
46944-33223 (80167)
0xheavy888Invested
$481.96
Value
$299.97
PnL
-$181.98
Record
55%
7319-5884 (13203)
Invested
$64.29
Value
$116.87
PnL
+$52.58
Record
50%
11182-10999 (22181)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$54.82
Value
$33.84
PnL
-$20.98
Record
58%
42718-31089 (73807)
Invested
$1.8
Value
$5
PnL
+$3.2
Record
50%
33888-33462 (67350)
Invested
$6.53
Value
$3.22
PnL
-$3.32
Record
48%
8991-9637 (18628)
Invested
$4.1
Value
$2.5
PnL
-$1.6
Record
52%
7507-6801 (14308)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$11.98
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$11.94
Record
53%
5677-5082 (10759)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.