CS Marítimo vs. CD Santa Clara: O/U 2.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 73¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 80%
1 arb excluded
$3.1K
$130.18
61.9¢ → 72.5¢
+17% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 73%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 62¢ | $1.3K | $1.5K | +$123.71 | 50% 25689-25525 (51214) |
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Overavg 38¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | -$94.68 | 59% 46944-33223 (80167) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 38¢ | $868.25 | $718.99 | -$149.26 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 63¢ | $631.1 | $685.69 | +$54.59 | |
 0xheavy888 | Underavg 61¢ | $122 | $141 | +$19 | 55% 7319-5884 (13203) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 37¢ | $76.96 | $61.36 | -$15.6 | 57% 29247-21632 (50879) |
 RN1<$100 | Underavg 65¢ | $25.61 | $27.78 | +$2.17 | 54% 57187-49444 (106631) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Underavg 61.5¢ | $6.15 | $7.05 | +$0.9 | 52% 7507-6801 (14308) |
Invested
$1,328.19
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$123.71
Record
50%
25689-25525 (51214)
Invested
$1,499.35
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$94.68
Record
59%
46944-33223 (80167)
Both legs:
0xheavy888Invested
$122
Value
$141
PnL
+$19
Record
55%
7319-5884 (13203)
Invested
$76.96
Value
$61.36
PnL
-$15.6
Record
57%
29247-21632 (50879)
RN1<$100Invested
$25.61
Value
$27.78
PnL
+$2.17
Record
54%
57187-49444 (106631)
Invested
$6.15
Value
$7.05
PnL
+$0.9
Record
52%
7507-6801 (14308)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.