CS Marítimo vs. CD Santa Clara: O/U 0.5

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 100¢ · $300 held · ended Nov 1

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 40%

Total Value

$299.82

Combined PnL

$135.09

Smart Money Entry

95.7¢ → 100¢

+4% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$172.31

Total Shares352

Combined PnL+$132.23

Over2 traders

Total Value$127.52

Total Shares130

Combined PnL+$2.86

Under — 60%Over — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 11¢	$35.93	$160.06	+$124.13	58% 42718-31089 (73807)
RO Rocko33	Overavg 96¢	$120	$124.38	+$4.38	63% 1209-696 (1905)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Underavg 18¢	$3.6	$9.8	+$6.2	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Overavg 89¢	$4.65	$3.14	-$1.51	50% 25689-25525 (51214)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 11¢	$0.55	$2.45	+$1.9	52% 7507-6801 (14308)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$35.93

Value

$160.06

PnL

+$124.13

Record

58%

42718-31089 (73807)

Rocko33

Over

Invested

$120

Value

$124.38

PnL

+$4.38

Record

63%

1209-696 (1905)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.6

Value

$9.8

PnL

+$6.2

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Over

Invested

$4.65

Value

$3.14

PnL

-$1.51

Record

50%

25689-25525 (51214)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.55

Value

$2.45

PnL

+$1.9

Record

52%

7507-6801 (14308)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.