Will CD Santa Clara win on 2026-11-01?

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 62¢ · $12K held · ended Nov 1

Yes38¢No62¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 33%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.9K

Combined PnL

$153.16

Smart Money Entry

59.2¢ → 62¢

+5% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 9 top traders (33%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes38%

No62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$8.8K

Total Shares14,359

Combined PnL+$263.94

Yes6 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares5,330

Combined PnL-$110.78

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388	Noavg 58.7¢	$7.5K	$7.8K	+$289.89	55% 1781-1468 (3249)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Yesavg 41¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$80	53% 5696-5032 (10728)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Yesavg 41¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$91.87	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 41¢	$823.69	$733.29	-$90.41
└ No leg	Noavg 63.8¢	$278.7	$277.24	-$1.46
RN1	Noavg 63¢	$648.64	$628.05	-$20.59	54% 57187-49444 (106631)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 62¢	$332.53	$327.17	-$5.36	49% 13032-13607 (26639)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 41.3¢	$366.94	$323.2	-$19.49	58% 42718-31089 (73807)
0xheavy888CTR	Yesavg 40.8¢	$104.35	$99.79	-$3.28	55% 7319-5884 (13203)
CA CannaeARB<$100	Noavg 60¢	$87.76	$87.44	-$0.32	53% 16124-14290 (30414)
└ No leg	Noavg 60¢	$50.37	$51.21	+$0.84
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 40.2¢	$37.39	$36.23	-$1.16
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 42¢	$73.08	$67.86	-$5.22	57% 29247-21632 (50879)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Yesavg 43¢	$28.38	$25.74	-$2.64	50% 7127-7172 (14299)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Yesavg 42¢	$2.1	$1.95	-$0.15	52% 7507-6801 (14308)

VD721lsj4938Dk388

Invested

$7,514.08

Value

$7.8K

PnL

+$289.89

Record

55%

1781-1468 (3249)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,640

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$80

Record

53%

5696-5032 (10728)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,102.39

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$91.87

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

Both legs:

Yes$823.6941¢-$90.41

No$278.763.8¢-$1.46

RN1

Invested

$648.64

Value

$628.05

PnL

-$20.59

Record

54%

57187-49444 (106631)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$332.53

Value

$327.17

PnL

-$5.36

Record

49%

13032-13607 (26639)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$366.94

Value

$323.2

PnL

-$19.49

Record

58%

42718-31089 (73807)

0xheavy888CTR

Yes

Invested

$104.35

Value

$99.79

PnL

-$3.28

Record

55%

7319-5884 (13203)

CannaeARB<$100

Invested

$87.76

Value

$87.44

PnL

-$0.32

Record

53%

16124-14290 (30414)

Both legs:

Invested

$73.08

Value

$67.86

PnL

-$5.22

Record

57%

29247-21632 (50879)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.38

Value

$25.74

PnL

-$2.64

Record

50%

7127-7172 (14299)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.1

Value

$1.95

PnL

-$0.15

Record

52%

7507-6801 (14308)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 62%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 9 top traders (33%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.2%

62.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$55.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

155.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.