Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold CD Santa Clara, while the market favors Rio Ave FC (78%). 2 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: CD Santa Clara (-1.5)
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold CD Santa Clara (100%) · CD Santa Clara at 22¢ · $17 held · ended Sep 6
⚠️
Avoid
CD Santa Clara
2
CD Santa Clara 100%
$16.52
-$2.47
Research grade
AvoidCD Santa Clara at 22%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Rio Ave FC 78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | CD Santa Claraavg 23¢ | $13.44 | $13.15 | -$0.29 | 58% 46667-33629 (80296) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | CD Santa Claraavg 37¢ | $5.55 | $3.38 | -$2.18 | 55% 9735-8124 (17859) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
22.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.