Casa Pia AC vs. Sporting CP: O/U 4.5
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (71%) · Under at 78¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 71%
$1.2K
$2.52
78.4¢ → 78¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 78%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Basquetipster | Underavg 79¢ | $356.29 | $360.8 | +$2.26 | 68% 1662-766 (2428) |
 0xheavy888 | Underavg 78¢ | $312 | $312 | +$0 | 55% 7053-5657 (12710) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 78¢ | $263.17 | $263.28 | +$0.1 | 58% 41493-30115 (71608) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Overavg 22¢ | $165.33 | $165.33 | +$0 | 59% 45379-31733 (77112) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 78¢ | $53.82 | $53.82 | +$0 | 58% 28414-20974 (49388) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Underavg 79¢ | $7.9 | $8 | +$0.1 | 47% 2258-2548 (4806) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 20.9¢ | $2.18 | $2.19 | +$0.06 | 52% 3998-3640 (7638) |
BasquetipsterInvested
$356.29
Value
$360.8
PnL
+$2.26
Record
68%
1662-766 (2428)
0xheavy888Invested
$312
Value
$312
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
7053-5657 (12710)
VeryLucky888Invested
$263.17
Value
$263.28
PnL
+$0.1
Record
58%
41493-30115 (71608)
Invested
$165.33
Value
$165.33
PnL
+$0
Record
59%
45379-31733 (77112)
Invested
$53.82
Value
$53.82
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
28414-20974 (49388)
Invested
$7.9
Value
$8
PnL
+$0.1
Record
47%
2258-2548 (4806)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$2.18
Value
$2.19
PnL
+$0.06
Record
52%
3998-3640 (7638)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.