Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (66%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Casa Pia AC vs. Sporting CP: O/U 2.5
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (86%) · Under at 35¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 86%
$1.4K
$316.65
36.8¢ → 34.5¢
-6% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 35%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Over 66%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR | Underavg 37¢ | $740 | $980 | +$240 | 53% 5579-4941 (10520) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 36.1¢ | $152.27 | $206.93 | +$54.65 | 58% 41515-30150 (71665) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 36.8¢ | $116.97 | $124.75 | +$7.78 | 59% 45382-31736 (77118) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Overavg 60¢ | $45 | $45.38 | +$0.38 | 50% 24858-24564 (49422) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Underavg 36¢ | $32.04 | $43.61 | +$11.57 | 49% 12488-12848 (25336) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Underavg 38¢ | $5.7 | $7.35 | +$1.65 | 47% 2272-2555 (4827) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Underavg 36¢ | $1.74 | $2.36 | +$0.63 | 50% 33199-32726 (65925) |
Invested
$740
Value
$980
PnL
+$240
Record
53%
5579-4941 (10520)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$152.27
Value
$206.93
PnL
+$54.65
Record
58%
41515-30150 (71665)
Invested
$116.97
Value
$124.75
PnL
+$7.78
Record
59%
45382-31736 (77118)
Invested
$45
Value
$45.38
PnL
+$0.38
Record
50%
24858-24564 (49422)
Invested
$32.04
Value
$43.61
PnL
+$11.57
Record
49%
12488-12848 (25336)
Invested
$5.7
Value
$7.35
PnL
+$1.65
Record
47%
2272-2555 (4827)
Invested
$1.74
Value
$2.36
PnL
+$0.63
Record
50%
33199-32726 (65925)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
34.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.