Spread: Sporting CP (-1.5)
4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Casa Pia AC (44%) · Casa Pia AC at 51¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Casa Pia AC
9
Casa Pia AC 44%
$2.8K
-$24.41
49.9¢ → 50.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralCasa Pia AC at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TH theowalcott | Casa Pia ACavg 50¢ | $1.4K | $1.3K | -$112.53 | 50% 109-108 (217) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR | Sporting CPavg 50¢ | $1.0K | $1.1K | +$80 | 53% 5579-4941 (10520) |
 0x8ae599cc1fdeb17c95e2af00bd75a38034bd4f22CTR | Sporting CPavg 48¢ | $201.58 | $199.48 | -$2.1 | 65% 1221-658 (1879) |
LZ lzh1<$100 | Casa Pia ACavg 50¢ | $49.52 | $50.51 | +$0.99 | 43% 460-610 (1070) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Casa Pia ACavg 48.8¢ | $45.97 | $48.54 | +$2.57 | 52% 4016-3659 (7675) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Sporting CPavg 50¢ | $40.5 | $43.74 | +$3.24 | 49% 12488-12848 (25336) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Casa Pia ACavg 48.3¢ | $33.67 | $34.88 | +$1.21 | 59% 45382-31736 (77118) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Sporting CPavg 49.7¢ | $411.83 | $25.59 | +$2.02 | 58% 41515-30150 (71665) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100 | Sporting CPavg 53¢ | $20.77 | $19.6 | +$0.2 | 53% 2145-1905 (4050) |
Invested
$1,406.64
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$112.53
Record
50%
109-108 (217)
Invested
$1,000
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$80
Record
53%
5579-4941 (10520)
0x8ae599cc1fdeb17c95e2af00bd75a38034bd4f22CTRInvested
$201.58
Value
$199.48
PnL
-$2.1
Record
65%
1221-658 (1879)
Invested
$49.52
Value
$50.51
PnL
+$0.99
Record
43%
460-610 (1070)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$45.97
Value
$48.54
PnL
+$2.57
Record
52%
4016-3659 (7675)
Invested
$40.5
Value
$43.74
PnL
+$3.24
Record
49%
12488-12848 (25336)
Invested
$33.67
Value
$34.88
PnL
+$1.21
Record
59%
45382-31736 (77118)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$411.83
Value
$25.59
PnL
+$2.02
Record
58%
41515-30150 (71665)
Invested
$20.77
Value
$19.6
PnL
+$0.2
Record
53%
2145-1905 (4050)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
theowalcott
Casa Pia AC — $1.3K
0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989
CTRSporting CP — $1.1K
0x8ae599cc1fdeb17c95e2af00bd75a38034bd4f22
CTRSporting CP — $199.48
lzh1
Casa Pia AC — $50.51
HRTrading
Casa Pia AC — $48.54
LuckyLoo
CTRSporting CP — $43.74
UpTheBlues
Casa Pia AC — $34.88
VeryLucky888
CTRSporting CP — $25.59
hedgevaultmainnet1
CTRSporting CP — $19.6