Will Casa Pia AC vs. Sporting CP end in a draw?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 84¢ · $11K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$10.6K
$0
84¢ → 83.5¢
-1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542 | Noavg 84¢ | $5.9K | $5.9K | +$0 | 47% 2468-2770 (5238) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989 | Noavg 84¢ | $3.4K | $3.4K | +$0 | 53% 5576-4935 (10511) |
CA Cannae | Noavg 84¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$0 | 53% 15879-14069 (29948) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $69.51 | $69.51 | -$0 | 52% 3994-3636 (7630) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $41.16 | $41.16 | +$0 | 58% 28411-20971 (49382) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $8.4 | $8.4 | +$0 | 58% 41483-30105 (71588) |
Invested
$5,880
Value
$5.9K
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
2468-2770 (5238)
Invested
$3,360
Value
$3.4K
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
5576-4935 (10511)
Invested
$1,285.92
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
15879-14069 (29948)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$69.51
Value
$69.51
PnL
-$0
Record
52%
3994-3636 (7630)
Invested
$41.16
Value
$41.16
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
28411-20971 (49382)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$8.4
Value
$8.4
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
41483-30105 (71588)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.