Will Casa Pia AC win on 2026-10-30?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 92¢ · $697 held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$696.62
$3.73
91¢ → 91.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CA Cannae | Noavg 91¢ | $589.93 | $593.17 | +$3.24 | 53% 15870-14050 (29920) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $81.9 | $82.35 | +$0.45 | 58% 28294-20870 (49164) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $11.28 | $11.16 | -$0.06 | 52% 3834-3490 (7324) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $9.1 | $9.15 | +$0.05 | 58% 41344-29975 (71319) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Yesavg 8¢ | $0.8 | $0.8 | +$0.05 | 47% 2216-2502 (4718) |
Invested
$589.93
Value
$593.17
PnL
+$3.24
Record
53%
15870-14050 (29920)
Invested
$81.9
Value
$82.35
PnL
+$0.45
Record
58%
28294-20870 (49164)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$11.28
Value
$11.16
PnL
-$0.06
Record
52%
3834-3490 (7324)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$9.1
Value
$9.15
PnL
+$0.05
Record
58%
41344-29975 (71319)
Invested
$0.8
Value
$0.8
PnL
+$0.05
Record
47%
2216-2502 (4718)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.