FC Arouca vs. CD Nacional: O/U 2.5

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 88¢ · $390 held · ended Nov 1

Over12¢Under88¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$389.66

Combined PnL

$49.64

Smart Money Entry

85.4¢ → 88¢

+3% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over12%

Under88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$388.34

Total Shares395

Combined PnL+$50.02

Over2 traders

Total Value$1.32

Total Shares11

Combined PnL-$0.38

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 85.4¢	$328.63	$377.3	+$48.67	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
RN1<$100	Underavg 88.5¢	$9.69	$11.04	+$1.35	54% 57187-49444 (106631)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 17¢	$1.02	$0.72	-$0.3	48% 8991-9637 (18628)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 51¢	$0.68	$0.6	-$0.08	52% 7507-6801 (14308)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$328.63

Value

$377.3

PnL

+$48.67

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

RN1<$100

Under

Invested

$9.69

Value

$11.04

PnL

+$1.35

Record

54%

57187-49444 (106631)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.02

Value

$0.72

PnL

-$0.3

Record

48%

8991-9637 (18628)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.68

Value

$0.6

PnL

-$0.08

Record

52%

7507-6801 (14308)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 88%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.5%

88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.