FC Arouca vs. CD Nacional: O/U 1.5

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 1

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 80%

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

$178.38

Smart Money Entry

59.8¢ → 100¢

+67% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares3,328

Combined PnL+$185.12

Over2 traders

Total Value$29.38

Total Shares47

Combined PnL-$6.74

Under — 80%Over — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU LuckyLoo	Underavg 58¢	$671.93	$689.31	+$17.38	49% 13022-13588 (26610)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 57.8¢	$573.81	$546.33	-$27.48	50% 25666-25500 (51166)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 68.2¢	$323.2	$445.26	+$122.06	59% 46920-33177 (80097)
FO foooool	Underavg 53.5¢	$282.22	$328.8	+$46.58	50% 11182-10991 (22173)
TO topdogbigboi	Underavg 84.4¢	$134.92	$150.64	+$15.72	48% 8966-9599 (18565)
RN1<$100	Underavg 55.3¢	$76.36	$82.12	+$5.76	54% 57170-49418 (106588)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Overavg 76¢	$26.54	$21.83	-$4.71	55% 7318-5882 (13200)
poshposh<$100	Underavg 67.1¢	$14.96	$17.61	+$2.65	58% 10670-7658 (18328)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 52¢	$13.39	$15.84	+$2.45	50% 33863-33445 (67308)
TH thatsabing0CTR<$100	Overavg 78¢	$9.58	$7.55	-$2.03	92% 2999-249 (3248)

LuckyLoo

Under

Invested

$671.93

Value

$689.31

PnL

+$17.38

Record

49%

13022-13588 (26610)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$573.81

Value

$546.33

PnL

-$27.48

Record

50%

25666-25500 (51166)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$323.2

Value

$445.26

PnL

+$122.06

Record

59%

46920-33177 (80097)

foooool

Under

Invested

$282.22

Value

$328.8

PnL

+$46.58

Record

50%

11182-10991 (22173)

topdogbigboi

Under

Invested

$134.92

Value

$150.64

PnL

+$15.72

Record

48%

8966-9599 (18565)

RN1<$100

Under

Invested

$76.36

Value

$82.12

PnL

+$5.76

Record

54%

57170-49418 (106588)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$26.54

Value

$21.83

PnL

-$4.71

Record

55%

7318-5882 (13200)

poshposh<$100

Under

Invested

$14.96

Value

$17.61

PnL

+$2.65

Record

58%

10670-7658 (18328)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$13.39

Value

$15.84

PnL

+$2.45

Record

50%

33863-33445 (67308)

thatsabing0CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.58

Value

$7.55

PnL

-$2.03

Record

92%

2999-249 (3248)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.