Will CD Nacional win on 2026-11-01?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 100¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
$4.8K
-$0.27
96.3¢ → 100¢
+4% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 96.6¢ | $4.5K | $4.6K | +$127.21 | 59% 46920-33177 (80097) |
LE LeLynxMalynx | Noavg 84¢ | $113 | $92.66 | -$2.26 | 57% 29237-21622 (50859) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $55.55 | $52.94 | -$2.61 | 50% 33863-33445 (67308) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17¢ | $24.99 | $24.26 | -$0.73 | 50% 11182-10991 (22173) |
 RN1CTR | Yesavg 6.3¢ | $129.18 | $15.46 | -$113.72 | 54% 57170-49418 (106588) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $12.79 | $9.69 | -$3.1 | 53% 5642-5057 (10699) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $5 | $5 | -$0 | 54% 6427-5413 (11840) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12.8¢ | $5.73 | $0.67 | -$5.06 | 49% 13022-13588 (26610) |
Invested
$4,483.07
Value
$4.6K
PnL
+$127.21
Record
59%
46920-33177 (80097)
Invested
$113
Value
$92.66
PnL
-$2.26
Record
57%
29237-21622 (50859)
Invested
$55.55
Value
$52.94
PnL
-$2.61
Record
50%
33863-33445 (67308)
Invested
$24.99
Value
$24.26
PnL
-$0.73
Record
50%
11182-10991 (22173)
RN1CTRInvested
$129.18
Value
$15.46
PnL
-$113.72
Record
54%
57170-49418 (106588)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$12.79
Value
$9.69
PnL
-$3.1
Record
53%
5642-5057 (10699)
Invested
$5
Value
$5
PnL
-$0
Record
54%
6427-5413 (11840)
Invested
$5.73
Value
$0.67
PnL
-$5.06
Record
49%
13022-13588 (26610)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.