Will FC Arouca win on 2026-11-01?
1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (13%) · Yes at 56¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
8
Yes 13%
$4.7K
-$55.1
Research grade
NeutralYes at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa | Yesavg 55.7¢ | $4.0K | $4.0K | -$16.91 | 50% 19237-19616 (38853) |
CA CannaeCTR | Noavg 44.5¢ | $281 | $249.53 | -$31.47 | 53% 15998-14180 (30178) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Noavg 44¢ | $238.7 | $238.7 | +$0 | 49% 12704-13137 (25841) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Noavg 44¢ | $139.26 | $139.26 | +$0 | 50% 33515-33076 (66591) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Noavg 44¢ | $39.15 | $35.15 | -$4 | 58% 28818-21252 (50070) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 44.3¢ | $17.7 | $15.8 | -$1.9 | 58% 42088-30563 (72651) |
KO korda77CTR<$100 | Noavg 44¢ | $5.72 | $5.14 | -$0.59 | 52% 5006-4684 (9690) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Noavg 44¢ | $2.2 | $1.98 | -$0.23 | 48% 2435-2653 (5088) |
Invested
$4,027.62
Value
$4.0K
PnL
-$16.91
Record
50%
19237-19616 (38853)
Invested
$281
Value
$249.53
PnL
-$31.47
Record
53%
15998-14180 (30178)
Invested
$238.7
Value
$238.7
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
12704-13137 (25841)
Invested
$139.26
Value
$139.26
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
33515-33076 (66591)
Invested
$39.15
Value
$35.15
PnL
-$4
Record
58%
28818-21252 (50070)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$17.7
Value
$15.8
PnL
-$1.9
Record
58%
42088-30563 (72651)
Invested
$5.72
Value
$5.14
PnL
-$0.59
Record
52%
5006-4684 (9690)
Invested
$2.2
Value
$1.98
PnL
-$0.23
Record
48%
2435-2653 (5088)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.