Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (76%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will CF Estrela da Amadora vs. FC Famalicão end in a draw?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 25¢ · $5K held · ended Sep 5

Yes25¢No75¢Ended Sat, Sep 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$5.1K

Combined PnL

$4.1K

Smart Money Entry

59.5¢ → 24.5¢

-59% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 76%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes25%

No76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares968

Combined PnL+$3.8K

No2 traders

Total Value$455.12

Total Shares596

Combined PnL+$367.54

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1CTR	Yesavg 59.6¢	$911.6	$4.7K	+$3.8K	53% 60065-52434 (112499)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Noavg 4.9¢	$43.2	$406.56	+$363.36	59% 31875-22502 (54377)
CA Cannae<$100	Noavg 69¢	$44.38	$48.56	+$4.18	53% 16518-14663 (31181)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$1.5	$1.23	-$0.27	47% 11082-12418 (23500)

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$911.6

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$3.8K

Record

53%

60065-52434 (112499)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Invested

$43.2

Value

$406.56

PnL

+$363.36

Record

59%

31875-22502 (54377)

Cannae<$100

Invested

$44.38

Value

$48.56

PnL

+$4.18

Record

53%

16518-14663 (31181)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.5

Value

$1.23

PnL

-$0.27

Record

47%

11082-12418 (23500)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 76%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance26.4%

24.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$278.07

Max Loss

-$100.00

378.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.