Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (66%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Académico de Viseu FC vs. Rio Ave FC: O/U 2.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 35¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 60%
$3.9K
$69.89
50¢ → 34.5¢
-31% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 35%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Under 66%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KY Kyn008CTR | Overavg 50¢ | $3.6K | $3.7K | +$71.73 | 49% 258-268 (526) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 49.9¢ | $102.91 | $100.96 | -$1.95 | 50% 25689-25525 (51214) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $94.5 | $96.39 | +$1.89 | 57% 29247-21632 (50879) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Underavg 56.7¢ | $20.32 | $18.33 | -$1.99 | 59% 46944-33223 (80167) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $10.57 | $10.78 | +$0.21 | 49% 13032-13607 (26639) |
Invested
$3,586.63
Value
$3.7K
PnL
+$71.73
Record
49%
258-268 (526)
Invested
$102.91
Value
$100.96
PnL
-$1.95
Record
50%
25689-25525 (51214)
Invested
$94.5
Value
$96.39
PnL
+$1.89
Record
57%
29247-21632 (50879)
Invested
$20.32
Value
$18.33
PnL
-$1.99
Record
59%
46944-33223 (80167)
Invested
$10.57
Value
$10.78
PnL
+$0.21
Record
49%
13032-13607 (26639)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
34.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.