Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (53%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Wisla Krakow win on 2026-11-06?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 47¢ · $37 held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$36.71
$0.74
Research grade
NeutralNo at 47%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 53%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 46.1¢ | $23.5 | $23.96 | +$0.46 | 50% 26084-25740 (51824) |
 rayvanmechelenCTR<$100 | Noavg 46¢ | $8.4 | $8.58 | +$0.27 | 53% 2617-2309 (4926) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Yesavg 54.2¢ | $2.71 | $2.7 | -$0.03 | 50% 21344-21627 (42971) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Noavg 46¢ | $1.44 | $1.47 | +$0.03 | 50% 28600-28435 (57035) |
Invested
$23.5
Value
$23.96
PnL
+$0.46
Record
50%
26084-25740 (51824)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100Invested
$8.4
Value
$8.58
PnL
+$0.27
Record
53%
2617-2309 (4926)
Invested
$2.71
Value
$2.7
PnL
-$0.03
Record
50%
21344-21627 (42971)
Invested
$1.44
Value
$1.47
PnL
+$0.03
Record
50%
28600-28435 (57035)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.