Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Jagiellonia Bialystok leading at halftime?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 0.4¢ · $825 held · ended Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
No
6
No 100%
$825.23
-$54.95
66¢ → 0.4¢
-99% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR | Noavg 70¢ | $280 | $292 | +$12 | 54% 4884-4115 (8999) |
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR | Noavg 69¢ | $242.7 | $256.76 | +$14.07 | 50% 2513-2497 (5010) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR | Noavg 70¢ | $102.9 | $107.31 | +$4.41 | 58% 28695-21181 (49876) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Noavg 69.6¢ | $211.03 | $77.54 | -$133.49 | 50% 25098-24836 (49934) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Noavg 12¢ | $9.06 | $55.12 | +$46.06 | 49% 12639-13031 (25670) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $34.5 | $36.5 | +$2 | 58% 41916-30432 (72348) |
Invested
$280
Value
$292
PnL
+$12
Record
54%
4884-4115 (8999)
Invested
$242.7
Value
$256.76
PnL
+$14.07
Record
50%
2513-2497 (5010)
Invested
$102.9
Value
$107.31
PnL
+$4.41
Record
58%
28695-21181 (49876)
Invested
$211.03
Value
$77.54
PnL
-$133.49
Record
50%
25098-24836 (49934)
Invested
$9.06
Value
$55.12
PnL
+$46.06
Record
49%
12639-13031 (25670)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$34.5
Value
$36.5
PnL
+$2
Record
58%
41916-30432 (72348)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.