Will Wisla Plock win on 2026-10-31?

13 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (81%) · No at 90¢ · $52K held · ended Oct 31

Yes11¢No89¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 81%

Total Value

$51.7K

Combined PnL

$-7.5K

Smart Money Entry

56.5¢ → 89.5¢

+58% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 16 top traders (81%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$21.0K

Total Shares51,256

Combined PnL$-12.4K

No13 traders

Total Value$30.8K

Total Shares41,549

Combined PnL+$4.9K

Yes — 19%No — 81%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34CTR	Yesavg 44.8¢	$22.9K	$21.0K	$-12.4K	48% 147-158 (305)
RN1	Noavg 55.3¢	$8.3K	$13.7K	+$3.7K	54% 56596-48765 (105361)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 55.6¢	$8.4K	$9.0K	+$563.6	59% 45810-32163 (77973)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 55.7¢	$1.7K	$2.1K	+$418.02	50% 25095-24835 (49930)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542	Noavg 56¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$90	47% 2505-2803 (5308)
CA Cannae	Noavg 55.3¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$68.67	53% 15954-14130 (30084)
heyboy800	Noavg 55¢	$1,000	$1.1K	+$72.73	61% 944-594 (1538)
oieshfn345	Noavg 90.7¢	$857.59	$750.31	-$107.28	57% 1719-1292 (3011)
HRTrading	Noavg 55.2¢	$285.21	$457.21	+$172.01	53% 4616-4152 (8768)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 56¢	$340.2	$292.66	+$13.84	58% 41902-30424 (72326)
FO foooool	Noavg 86¢	$347.09	$238.12	-$108.97	50% 10864-10681 (21545)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Noavg 55.6¢	$95.01	$100.89	+$5.88	58% 28689-21179 (49868)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Noavg 78¢	$54.6	$41.3	-$13.3	59% 30467-21185 (51652)
poshposh<$100	Noavg 55¢	$36.01	$38.63	-$0.33	59% 10160-7156 (17316)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.3¢	$5.82	$21.13	+$15.31	49% 7958-8291 (16249)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$9.3	$8.84	-$0.46	50% 33395-32964 (66359)

1l2ihj34li12u34CTR

Yes

Invested

$22,875.95

Value

$21.0K

PnL

$-12.4K

Record

48%

147-158 (305)

RN1

Invested

$8,335.28

Value

$13.7K

PnL

+$3.7K

Record

54%

56596-48765 (105361)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$8,430.46

Value

$9.0K

PnL

+$563.6

Record

59%

45810-32163 (77973)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$1,731.77

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$418.02

Record

50%

25095-24835 (49930)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542

Invested

$1,680

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$90

Record

47%

2505-2803 (5308)

Cannae

Invested

$1,036.79

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$68.67

Record

53%

15954-14130 (30084)

heyboy800

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$72.73

Record

61%

944-594 (1538)

oieshfn345

Invested

$857.59

Value

$750.31

PnL

-$107.28

Record

57%

1719-1292 (3011)

HRTrading

Invested

$285.21

Value

$457.21

PnL

+$172.01

Record

53%

4616-4152 (8768)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$340.2

Value

$292.66

PnL

+$13.84

Record

58%

41902-30424 (72326)

foooool

Invested

$347.09

Value

$238.12

PnL

-$108.97

Record

50%

10864-10681 (21545)

LeLynxMalynx

Invested

$95.01

Value

$100.89

PnL

+$5.88

Record

58%

28689-21179 (49868)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Invested

$54.6

Value

$41.3

PnL

-$13.3

Record

59%

30467-21185 (51652)

poshposh<$100

Invested

$36.01

Value

$38.63

PnL

-$0.33

Record

59%

10160-7156 (17316)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.82

Value

$21.13

PnL

+$15.31

Record

49%

7958-8291 (16249)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.3

Value

$8.84

PnL

-$0.46

Record

50%

33395-32964 (66359)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 16 top traders (81%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.9%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.