Will GKS Piast Gliwice win on 2026-10-31?
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 63¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
8
Yes 50%
$2.0K
$100.4
65.2¢ → 63¢
-3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 63%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 oieshfn345 | Yesavg 66.9¢ | $913.28 | $862.1 | -$51.17 | 57% 1719-1292 (3011) |
 RN1CTR | Noavg 36¢ | $521.28 | $535.76 | +$14.48 | 54% 56596-48765 (105361) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Yesavg 63¢ | $344.28 | $344.08 | -$0.21 | 50% 25095-24835 (49930) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Noavg 17.9¢ | $47.79 | $184.58 | +$136.78 | 59% 45810-32163 (77973) |
FO foooool<$100 | Yesavg 59.8¢ | $62 | $64.33 | +$2.32 | 50% 10864-10681 (21545) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 35.6¢ | $32.81 | $34.36 | +$1.55 | 53% 4616-4152 (8768) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Noavg 31.5¢ | $5.99 | $7.03 | +$1.04 | 49% 7958-8291 (16249) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100 | Yesavg 53¢ | $10.6 | $6.2 | -$4.4 | 59% 30467-21185 (51652) |
oieshfn345Invested
$913.28
Value
$862.1
PnL
-$51.17
Record
57%
1719-1292 (3011)
RN1CTRInvested
$521.28
Value
$535.76
PnL
+$14.48
Record
54%
56596-48765 (105361)
Invested
$344.28
Value
$344.08
PnL
-$0.21
Record
50%
25095-24835 (49930)
Invested
$47.79
Value
$184.58
PnL
+$136.78
Record
59%
45810-32163 (77973)
Invested
$62
Value
$64.33
PnL
+$2.32
Record
50%
10864-10681 (21545)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$32.81
Value
$34.36
PnL
+$1.55
Record
53%
4616-4152 (8768)
Invested
$5.99
Value
$7.03
PnL
+$1.04
Record
49%
7958-8291 (16249)
Invested
$10.6
Value
$6.2
PnL
-$4.4
Record
59%
30467-21185 (51652)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.