Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
KKS Lech Poznan vs. Wisla Krakow: O/U 2.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $204 held · ended Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 50%
$203.79
-$57.29
48.6¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO foooool | Overavg 42¢ | $50.73 | $118.94 | +$68.21 | 50% 10883-10699 (21582) |
RO Rocko33<$100 | Overavg 94¢ | $78.33 | $83.29 | +$4.96 | 63% 1118-644 (1762) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Overavg 59¢ | $1.45 | $1.43 | -$0.02 | 49% 12659-13060 (25719) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 47.4¢ | $119.49 | $0.13 | -$119.36 | 59% 45889-32231 (78120) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Underavg 64.5¢ | $7.32 | $0.01 | -$7.32 | 49% 8037-8396 (16433) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Underavg 75¢ | $3.75 | $0 | -$3.75 | 54% 56642-48828 (105470) |
Invested
$50.73
Value
$118.94
PnL
+$68.21
Record
50%
10883-10699 (21582)
Invested
$78.33
Value
$83.29
PnL
+$4.96
Record
63%
1118-644 (1762)
Invested
$1.45
Value
$1.43
PnL
-$0.02
Record
49%
12659-13060 (25719)
Invested
$119.49
Value
$0.13
PnL
-$119.36
Record
59%
45889-32231 (78120)
Invested
$7.32
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$7.32
Record
49%
8037-8396 (16433)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$3.75
Value
$0
PnL
-$3.75
Record
54%
56642-48828 (105470)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.