KKS Lech Poznan vs. Wisla Krakow: O/U 1.5

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 100¢ · $187 held · ended Oct 31

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 40%

Total Value

$186.89

Combined PnL

-$61.09

Smart Money Entry

72.3¢ → 100¢

+38% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$186.74

Total Shares187

Combined PnL+$31.72

Under3 traders

Total Value$0.15

Total Shares292

Combined PnL-$92.82

Over — 40%Under — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FO foooool	Overavg 76.6¢	$143.55	$161.26	+$17.71	50% 10883-10699 (21582)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Overavg 45¢	$11.47	$25.48	+$14.01	50% 25153-24879 (50032)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Underavg 26.8¢	$61	$0.11	-$60.89	59% 45889-32231 (78120)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 49.8¢	$29.57	$0.03	-$29.54	53% 4726-4250 (8976)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$2.39	$0	-$2.39	54% 56642-48828 (105470)

foooool

Over

Invested

$143.55

Value

$161.26

PnL

+$17.71

Record

50%

10883-10699 (21582)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Over

Invested

$11.47

Value

$25.48

PnL

+$14.01

Record

50%

25153-24879 (50032)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$61

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$60.89

Record

59%

45889-32231 (78120)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$29.57

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$29.54

Record

53%

4726-4250 (8976)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.39

Value

PnL

-$2.39

Record

54%

56642-48828 (105470)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.