Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (54%). 9 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will KKS Lech Poznan win on 2026-10-31?
9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 47¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 90%
$3.8K
$177.55
47.2¢ → 46.5¢
-2% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 47%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 54%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Noavg 46.9¢ | $2.1K | $2.2K | +$162.72 | 59% 45819-32178 (77997) |
 fraj0la | Yesavg 56¢ | $502.88 | $484.92 | -$4.49 | 64% 230-132 (362) |
CA CannaeCTR | Noavg 47¢ | $410.47 | $432.3 | +$21.83 | 53% 15956-14132 (30088) |
 us391CTR | Noavg 49¢ | $233.13 | $235.5 | +$2.38 | 51% 1683-1647 (3330) |
 RN1CTR | Noavg 47¢ | $145.13 | $146.67 | +$1.54 | 54% 56611-48781 (105392) |
FO fooooolCTR | Noavg 49.2¢ | $136.48 | $131.92 | -$4.55 | 50% 10864-10681 (21545) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Noavg 47.8¢ | $117.19 | $114.05 | -$3.14 | 49% 12639-13031 (25670) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Noavg 47¢ | $49.35 | $49.88 | +$1.58 | 58% 28707-21186 (49893) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Noavg 47.2¢ | $10.71 | $10.33 | -$0.38 | 50% 25104-24842 (49946) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 44¢ | $5.94 | $6.35 | +$0.07 | 53% 4646-4187 (8833) |
Invested
$2,067.06
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$162.72
Record
59%
45819-32178 (77997)
fraj0laInvested
$502.88
Value
$484.92
PnL
-$4.49
Record
64%
230-132 (362)
Invested
$410.47
Value
$432.3
PnL
+$21.83
Record
53%
15956-14132 (30088)
us391CTRInvested
$233.13
Value
$235.5
PnL
+$2.38
Record
51%
1683-1647 (3330)
RN1CTRInvested
$145.13
Value
$146.67
PnL
+$1.54
Record
54%
56611-48781 (105392)
Invested
$136.48
Value
$131.92
PnL
-$4.55
Record
50%
10864-10681 (21545)
Invested
$117.19
Value
$114.05
PnL
-$3.14
Record
49%
12639-13031 (25670)
Invested
$49.35
Value
$49.88
PnL
+$1.58
Record
58%
28707-21186 (49893)
Invested
$10.71
Value
$10.33
PnL
-$0.38
Record
50%
25104-24842 (49946)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$5.94
Value
$6.35
PnL
+$0.07
Record
53%
4646-4187 (8833)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.