Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 1 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
GKS Katowice vs. Widzew Lodz: O/U 2.5
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (25%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Under
4
Under 25%
$2.7K
$24.57
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DE DelidelaDeleCTR | Underavg 40¢ | $2.4K | $2.5K | +$30.14 | 46% 34-40 (74) |
FO foooool<$100 | Overavg 55.7¢ | $51.46 | $89.63 | -$6.17 | 50% 10919-10736 (21655) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 60¢ | $71.49 | $72.09 | +$0.6 | 53% 4792-4312 (9104) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Overavg 59¢ | $58.99 | $58.99 | +$0 | 58% 42027-30514 (72541) |
Invested
$2,410.19
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$30.14
Record
46%
34-40 (74)
Invested
$51.46
Value
$89.63
PnL
-$6.17
Record
50%
10919-10736 (21655)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$71.49
Value
$72.09
PnL
+$0.6
Record
53%
4792-4312 (9104)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$58.99
Value
$58.99
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
42027-30514 (72541)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.