Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (55%). 11 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will GKS Katowice win on 2026-10-31?

11 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (85%) · Yes at 45¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 31

Yes45¢No55¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 85%

Total Value

$7.4K

Combined PnL

-$281.01

Smart Money Entry

79.2¢ → 45¢

-43% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 45%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 13 top traders (85%)Underdog side (market favors No 55%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes45%

No55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes11 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares8,118

Combined PnL$-1.8K

No2 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares4,270

Combined PnL+$1.6K

Yes — 85%No — 15%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 70.9¢	$2.2K	$2.1K	-$85.84	50% 25208-24935 (50143)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 83.8¢	$3.3K	$2.0K	$-1.3K	59% 45969-32302 (78271)
RN1	Noavg 21¢	$743.71	$1.9K	+$1.2K	54% 56681-48879 (105560)
SP spyGoodLuck77	Noavg 5.8¢	$42.56	$404.45	+$361.89	63% 1773-1052 (2825)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Yesavg 61.5¢	$260.64	$248.57	-$12.07	49% 8081-8480 (16561)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Yesavg 99.2¢	$420.38	$233.09	-$187.3	50% 33488-33047 (66535)
poshposhCTR	Yesavg 79.7¢	$321.68	$200.86	-$120.82	59% 10257-7240 (17497)
FO fooooolCTR	Yesavg 71.8¢	$153.46	$126.92	-$26.54	50% 10919-10736 (21655)
BE BetzikoCTR	Yesavg 91.1¢	$155.96	$77.03	-$78.93	54% 6304-5335 (11639)
LO looppauCTR<$100	Yesavg 99.9¢	$59.94	$27	-$32.94	99% 10955-68 (11023)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 47¢	$3.84	$3.68	-$0.16	58% 42027-30514 (72541)
RO Rocky31CTR<$100	Yesavg 96¢	$6.31	$2.96	-$3.35	74% 1611-577 (2188)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 47¢	$1.43	$1.4	-$0.03	53% 4792-4312 (9104)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,233.01

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$85.84

Record

50%

25208-24935 (50143)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,296.08

Value

$2.0K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

59%

45969-32302 (78271)

RN1

Invested

$743.71

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

54%

56681-48879 (105560)

spyGoodLuck77

Invested

$42.56

Value

$404.45

PnL

+$361.89

Record

63%

1773-1052 (2825)

topdogbigboiCTR

Yes

Invested

$260.64

Value

$248.57

PnL

-$12.07

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

SnakeBallCTR

Yes

Invested

$420.38

Value

$233.09

PnL

-$187.3

Record

50%

33488-33047 (66535)

poshposhCTR

Yes

Invested

$321.68

Value

$200.86

PnL

-$120.82

Record

59%

10257-7240 (17497)

fooooolCTR

Yes

Invested

$153.46

Value

$126.92

PnL

-$26.54

Record

50%

10919-10736 (21655)

BetzikoCTR

Yes

Invested

$155.96

Value

$77.03

PnL

-$78.93

Record

54%

6304-5335 (11639)

looppauCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$59.94

Value

$27

PnL

-$32.94

Record

99%

10955-68 (11023)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.84

Value

$3.68

PnL

-$0.16

Record

58%

42027-30514 (72541)

Rocky31CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.31

Value

$2.96

PnL

-$3.35

Record

74%

1611-577 (2188)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.43

Value

$1.4

PnL

-$0.03

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 45%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 13 top traders (85%)Underdog side (market favors No 55%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.2%

45.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$111.68

Max Loss

-$100.00

211.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.