Gornik Zabrze vs. Legia Warszawa: O/U 2.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 55¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 40%
$3.5K
-$14.93
54.3¢ → 54.5¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 us391 | Underavg 54.1¢ | $2.8K | $2.8K | -$7.32 | 51% 1671-1621 (3292) |
BE berlinskies | Underavg 55.2¢ | $426.56 | $417.6 | -$8.96 | 58% 5822-4279 (10101) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Overavg 46¢ | $133.63 | $133.63 | -$0 | 59% 45379-31733 (77112) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 46¢ | $72.66 | $71.94 | -$0.72 | 52% 3998-3640 (7638) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Overavg 44.5¢ | $62.39 | $64.48 | +$2.08 | 50% 24854-24560 (49414) |
us391Invested
$2,787.73
Value
$2.8K
PnL
-$7.32
Record
51%
1671-1621 (3292)
Invested
$426.56
Value
$417.6
PnL
-$8.96
Record
58%
5822-4279 (10101)
Invested
$133.63
Value
$133.63
PnL
-$0
Record
59%
45379-31733 (77112)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$72.66
Value
$71.94
PnL
-$0.72
Record
52%
3998-3640 (7638)
Invested
$62.39
Value
$64.48
PnL
+$2.08
Record
50%
24854-24560 (49414)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.