Will KS Cracovia Krakow vs. LKP Motor Lublin end in a draw?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 74¢ · $52 held · ended Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$52.35
$1.04
Research grade
NeutralNo at 74%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 oieshfn345<$100 | Noavg 73.9¢ | $34.28 | $34.11 | +$1.22 | 57% 1677-1255 (2932) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 71.5¢ | $7.15 | $7.35 | +$0.2 | 54% 6194-5243 (11437) |
 us391<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $5.21 | $5.57 | -$0.04 | 51% 1672-1622 (3294) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 27¢ | $2.7 | $2.7 | +$0 | 58% 41507-30134 (71641) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 30¢ | $2.97 | $2.62 | -$0.35 | 59% 45380-31733 (77113) |
oieshfn345<$100Invested
$34.28
Value
$34.11
PnL
+$1.22
Record
57%
1677-1255 (2932)
Invested
$7.15
Value
$7.35
PnL
+$0.2
Record
54%
6194-5243 (11437)
us391<$100Invested
$5.21
Value
$5.57
PnL
-$0.04
Record
51%
1672-1622 (3294)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$2.7
Value
$2.7
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
41507-30134 (71641)
Invested
$2.97
Value
$2.62
PnL
-$0.35
Record
59%
45380-31733 (77113)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.