Will KS Cracovia Krakow win on 2026-10-30?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 85¢ · $519 held · ended Oct 30

Yes15¢No85¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

Total Value

$519.05

Combined PnL

$77.32

Smart Money Entry

77.7¢ → 85¢

+9% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes15%

No85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$334.37

Total Shares417

Combined PnL+$6.12

Yes3 traders

Total Value$184.68

Total Shares320

Combined PnL+$71.2

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FO foooool	Noavg 85¢	$268.52	$267.66	-$0.86	50% 10770-10596 (21366)
oieshfn345CTR	Yesavg 41¢	$251.98	$156.23	+$52.92	57% 1677-1255 (2932)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 56¢	$47.46	$52.86	+$6.62	52% 4004-3650 (7654)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$7.41	$20.75	+$13.34	59% 45380-31733 (77113)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$2.75	$7.7	+$4.95	49% 18995-19405 (38400)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 56.2¢	$6.93	$7.15	+$0.22	58% 41507-30134 (71641)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 60¢	$6	$5.8	-$0.2	50% 33199-32726 (65925)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Noavg 36¢	$0.56	$0.91	+$0.34	50% 24858-24564 (49422)

foooool

Invested

$268.52

Value

$267.66

PnL

-$0.86

Record

50%

10770-10596 (21366)

oieshfn345CTR

Yes

Invested

$251.98

Value

$156.23

PnL

+$52.92

Record

57%

1677-1255 (2932)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$47.46

Value

$52.86

PnL

+$6.62

Record

52%

4004-3650 (7654)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.41

Value

$20.75

PnL

+$13.34

Record

59%

45380-31733 (77113)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.75

Value

$7.7

PnL

+$4.95

Record

49%

18995-19405 (38400)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$6.93

Value

$7.15

PnL

+$0.22

Record

58%

41507-30134 (71641)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

Value

$5.8

PnL

-$0.2

Record

50%

33199-32726 (65925)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Invested

$0.56

Value

$0.91

PnL

+$0.34

Record

50%

24858-24564 (49422)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.6%

85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$15.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

115.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.