Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (96%). 9 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Placeholder 9 announced as next James Bond?

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 3.8¢ · $22 held · ends Dec 31

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$22.5

Combined PnL

-$177.33

Smart Money Entry

1¢ → 3.8¢

+271% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 96%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$22.5

Total Shares11,213

Combined PnL-$177.33

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Mature

27h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$54.96	$10.95	-$87.11	47% 1360-1505 (2865)
ImJustKenCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$12.72	$3.11	-$24.74	53% 3234-2906 (6140)
RA rainbowliliesCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$20.76	$2.8	-$17.96	39% 2908-4509 (7417)
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$0.96	$1.73	-$15.45	34% 2137-4090 (6227)
GI GingerMcKennaCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.02	$1.65	-$12.18	37% 3312-5702 (9014)
FO forgotmydinnerCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$1.04	$1.28	-$11.78	18% 109-506 (615)
CU curieCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.07	$0.56	-$4.99	47% 9036-10187 (19223)
0X 0xb0e74DF9430A089Aa102e2207Af5fde1967439D2-1789545517033CTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$2.86	$0.35	-$2.51	46% 6414-7642 (14056)
FO fourcoin15mCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.02	$0.07	-$0.61	39% 5802-9177 (14979)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$54.96

Value

$10.95

PnL

-$87.11

Record

47%

1360-1505 (2865)

ImJustKenCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.72

Value

$3.11

PnL

-$24.74

Record

53%

3234-2906 (6140)

rainbowliliesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.76

Value

$2.8

PnL

-$17.96

Record

39%

2908-4509 (7417)

JordanMooneyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.96

Value

$1.73

PnL

-$15.45

Record

34%

2137-4090 (6227)

GingerMcKennaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$1.65

PnL

-$12.18

Record

37%

3312-5702 (9014)

forgotmydinnerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.04

Value

$1.28

PnL

-$11.78

Record

18%

109-506 (615)

curieCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.07

Value

$0.56

PnL

-$4.99

Record

47%

9036-10187 (19223)

0xb0e74DF9430A089Aa102e2207Af5fde1967439D2-1789545517033CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.86

Value

$0.35

PnL

-$2.51

Record

46%

6414-7642 (14056)

fourcoin15mCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$0.61

Record

39%

5802-9177 (14979)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 96%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Mature

27h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance5.0%

3.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1906.91

Max Loss

-$100.00

2006.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.