Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (98%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Joe Alwyn announced as next James Bond?

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 1.8¢ · $168 held · ends Dec 31

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$168.12

Combined PnL

-$25.45

Smart Money Entry

2¢ → 1.8¢

-13% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$168.12

Total Shares9,607

Combined PnL-$25.45

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yesavg 2¢	$111.75	$95.82	-$15.92	50% 1220-1232 (2452)
DO donthackmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$39.46	$33.84	-$5.62	73% 11074-4085 (15159)
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$16.43	$14.09	-$2.34	36% 1885-3304 (5189)
GI GingerMcKennaCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$14.1	$12.86	-$1.24	38% 2933-4687 (7620)
TY TyshaCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$5.75	$6.29	+$0.54	72% 8553-3324 (11877)
0X 0xb0e74DF9430A089Aa102e2207Af5fde1967439D2-1789545517033CTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$2.86	$2.45	-$0.41	50% 5496-5605 (11101)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$2.2	$1.89	-$0.31	23% 177-599 (776)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$1.02	$0.88	-$0.15	31% 1407-3191 (4598)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$111.75

Value

$95.82

PnL

-$15.92

Record

50%

1220-1232 (2452)

donthackmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.46

Value

$33.84

PnL

-$5.62

Record

73%

11074-4085 (15159)

JordanMooneyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.43

Value

$14.09

PnL

-$2.34

Record

36%

1885-3304 (5189)

GingerMcKennaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.1

Value

$12.86

PnL

-$1.24

Record

38%

2933-4687 (7620)

TyshaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.75

Value

$6.29

PnL

+$0.54

Record

72%

8553-3324 (11877)

0xb0e74DF9430A089Aa102e2207Af5fde1967439D2-1789545517033CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.86

Value

$2.45

PnL

-$0.41

Record

50%

5496-5605 (11101)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.2

Value

$1.89

PnL

-$0.31

Record

23%

177-599 (776)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.02

Value

$0.88

PnL

-$0.15

Record

31%

1407-3191 (4598)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.9%

1.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3400.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

3500.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.