Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (61%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will FC Cajamarca win on 2026-10-28?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 40¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 67%
$1.0K
$50.69
41.8¢ → 39.5¢
-6% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 40%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 61%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 41.7¢ | $939 | $957.36 | +$18.36 | 50% 24366-23976 (48342) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 44¢ | $49.79 | $49.79 | +$0 | 49% 18605-19035 (37640) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 52.4¢ | $384.55 | $16 | +$32.51 | 58% 40758-29479 (70237) |
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100 | Yesavg 41.9¢ | $11.81 | $11.97 | +$0.16 | 63% 1075-624 (1699) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Yesavg 48.2¢ | $10.02 | $9.45 | -$0.57 | 47% 2054-2350 (4404) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | $3.12 | $3.36 | +$0.24 | 53% 3056-2718 (5774) |
Invested
$939
Value
$957.36
PnL
+$18.36
Record
50%
24366-23976 (48342)
Invested
$49.79
Value
$49.79
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
18605-19035 (37640)
VeryLucky888Invested
$384.55
Value
$16
PnL
+$32.51
Record
58%
40758-29479 (70237)
Invested
$11.81
Value
$11.97
PnL
+$0.16
Record
63%
1075-624 (1699)
Invested
$10.02
Value
$9.45
PnL
-$0.57
Record
47%
2054-2350 (4404)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$3.12
Value
$3.36
PnL
+$0.24
Record
53%
3056-2718 (5774)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
39.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.