Will CU Técnica de Cajamarca win on 2026-10-28?

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (82%) · Yes at 56¢ · $870 held · ended Oct 28

Yes56¢No44¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 82%

Total Value

$870.25

Combined PnL

-$7.66

Smart Money Entry

42.2¢ → 56.5¢

+34% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes56%

No44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$231.34

Total Shares455

Combined PnL-$11.18

Yes9 traders

Total Value$638.92

Total Shares1,486

Combined PnL+$3.51

No — 18%Yes — 82%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
poshposhCTR	Noavg 52.6¢	$237.34	$225.42	-$11.92	60% 9388-6379 (15767)
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 30¢	$194.3	$216.92	+$22.62	50% 24379-23989 (48368)
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 54.3¢	$183.34	$184.12	+$0.78	59% 44632-31032 (75664)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554	Yesavg 47.9¢	$137.43	$126.36	-$11.07	53% 3106-2736 (5842)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Yesavg 53¢	$52.74	$50.75	-$1.99	50% 32789-32345 (65134)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Yesavg 54.6¢	$29.03	$28.7	-$0.33	50% 12125-12330 (24455)
tradecraft<$100	Yesavg 53.1¢	$22.81	$20.19	-$2.62	52% 5878-5516 (11394)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 78¢	$5.18	$5.91	+$0.74	53% 3080-2737 (5817)
PA pauleta23<$100	Yesavg 58¢	$10	$5.69	-$4.31	67% 23111-11517 (34628)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$2.5	$3.15	+$0.65	47% 2056-2353 (4409)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Yesavg 52¢	$3.25	$3.03	-$0.22	59% 30098-20824 (50922)

poshposhCTR

Invested

$237.34

Value

$225.42

PnL

-$11.92

Record

60%

9388-6379 (15767)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$194.3

Value

$216.92

PnL

+$22.62

Record

50%

24379-23989 (48368)

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$183.34

Value

$184.12

PnL

+$0.78

Record

59%

44632-31032 (75664)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554

Yes

Invested

$137.43

Value

$126.36

PnL

-$11.07

Record

53%

3106-2736 (5842)

SnakeBall<$100

Yes

Invested

$52.74

Value

$50.75

PnL

-$1.99

Record

50%

32789-32345 (65134)

LuckyLoo<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.03

Value

$28.7

PnL

-$0.33

Record

50%

12125-12330 (24455)

tradecraft<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.81

Value

$20.19

PnL

-$2.62

Record

52%

5878-5516 (11394)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$5.18

Value

$5.91

PnL

+$0.74

Record

53%

3080-2737 (5817)

pauleta23<$100

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$5.69

PnL

-$4.31

Record

67%

23111-11517 (34628)

ameisgoat11<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.5

Value

$3.15

PnL

+$0.65

Record

47%

2056-2353 (4409)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.25

Value

$3.03

PnL

-$0.22

Record

59%

30098-20824 (50922)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 56%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.