Will CU Técnica de Cajamarca vs. CD Los Chankas end in a draw?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 99¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 13

Yes99¢No1¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$14.4K

Combined PnL

-$191.78

Smart Money Entry

93.1¢ → 98.7¢

+6% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$14.0K

Total Shares14,126

Combined PnL+$813.37

No3 traders

Total Value$405.2

Total Shares20,260

Combined PnL$-1.0K

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU lukibazdonauki754	Yesavg 90.9¢	$8.8K	$9.6K	+$757.57	56% 82-65 (147)
dips.	Yesavg 98¢	$4.3K	$4.3K	+$49.27	41% 159-232 (391)
GA GaditimaCTR	Noavg 4.7¢	$933.07	$394.6	-$646.83	51% 62-60 (122)
MA makerview00CTR	Noavg 69¢	$345	$10	-$337.75	—
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Yes	$9.91	$9.91	+$6.52	30% 2360-5638 (7998)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 70¢	$21	$0.6	-$20.57	47% 171-192 (363)

lukibazdonauki754

Yes

Invested

$8,845.89

Value

$9.6K

PnL

+$757.57

Record

56%

82-65 (147)

dips.

Yes

Invested

$4,292.25

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$49.27

Record

41%

159-232 (391)

GaditimaCTR

Invested

$933.07

Value

$394.6

PnL

-$646.83

Record

51%

62-60 (122)

makerview00CTR

Invested

$345

Value

$10

PnL

-$337.75

Record

—

qwen300.fund<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.91

Value

$9.91

PnL

+$6.52

Record

30%

2360-5638 (7998)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$21

Value

$0.6

PnL

-$20.57

Record

47%

171-192 (363)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.7%

98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.