Will CS Cristal win on 2026-10-29?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 65¢ · $589 held · ended Oct 29

Yes35¢No65¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$589.17

Combined PnL

-$151.94

Smart Money Entry

64.9¢ → 65¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes35%

No65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$510.04

Total Shares933

Combined PnL-$119.92

Yes3 traders

Total Value$79.13

Total Shares191

Combined PnL-$32.02

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Noavg 66¢	$495	$393.75	-$101.25	58% 41266-29916 (71182)
SP spyGoodLuck77CTR	Yesavg 59.9¢	$106.55	$72.97	-$33.58	63% 1752-1042 (2794)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 66¢	$63.36	$50.4	-$12.96	58% 28259-20841 (49100)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Noavg 63.3¢	$42.64	$34.41	-$8.23	50% 24706-24393 (49099)
RN1<$100	Noavg 61¢	$15.64	$16.03	+$0.38	54% 56053-48184 (104237)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 42.2¢	$5.92	$7.86	+$1.94	52% 3741-3403 (7144)
tradecraft<$100	Noavg 37¢	$7.4	$7.6	+$0.2	51% 5930-5617 (11547)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Yesavg 34¢	$2.72	$3.8	+$1.08	59% 45140-31520 (76660)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 38¢	$1.89	$2.36	+$0.47	49% 18854-19262 (38116)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$495

Value

$393.75

PnL

-$101.25

Record

58%

41266-29916 (71182)

spyGoodLuck77CTR

Yes

Invested

$106.55

Value

$72.97

PnL

-$33.58

Record

63%

1752-1042 (2794)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$63.36

Value

$50.4

PnL

-$12.96

Record

58%

28259-20841 (49100)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Invested

$42.64

Value

$34.41

PnL

-$8.23

Record

50%

24706-24393 (49099)

RN1<$100

Invested

$15.64

Value

$16.03

PnL

+$0.38

Record

54%

56053-48184 (104237)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$5.92

Value

$7.86

PnL

+$1.94

Record

52%

3741-3403 (7144)

tradecraft<$100

Invested

$7.4

Value

$7.6

PnL

+$0.2

Record

51%

5930-5617 (11547)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.72

Value

$3.8

PnL

+$1.08

Record

59%

45140-31520 (76660)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.89

Value

$2.36

PnL

+$0.47

Record

49%

18854-19262 (38116)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 65%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.1%

65.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$48.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

149.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.