Spread: CS Cienciano (-2.5)

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold CA Grau (60%) · CA Grau at 87¢ · $89 held · ended Oct 29

CS Cienciano14¢CA Grau86¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

CA Grau

Consensus Traders

CA Grau 60%

Total Value

$89

Combined PnL

$0.99

Research grade

NeutralCA Grau at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

CA Grau

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

CS Cienciano14%

CA Grau87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

CA Grau3 traders

Total Value$82.06

Total Shares114

Combined PnL+$0.4

CS Cienciano2 traders

Total Value$6.94

Total Shares22

Combined PnL+$0.59

CA Grau — 60%CS Cienciano — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888<$100	CA Grauavg 67.9¢	$59.44	$55.64	+$0.67	58% 40917-29601 (70518)
SN SnakeBall<$100	CA Grauavg 85¢	$19.83	$20.07	+$0.23	50% 32883-32441 (65324)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	CA Grauavg 68.5¢	$6.85	$6.35	-$0.5	47% 2102-2381 (4483)
HRTradingCTR<$100	CS Ciencianoavg 31.7¢	$4.37	$4.27	-$0.1	53% 3243-2909 (6152)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	CS Ciencianoavg 23¢	$1.98	$2.67	+$0.69	50% 24471-24125 (48596)

VeryLucky888<$100

CA Grau

Invested

$59.44

Value

$55.64

PnL

+$0.67

Record

58%

40917-29601 (70518)

SnakeBall<$100

CA Grau

Invested

$19.83

Value

$20.07

PnL

+$0.23

Record

50%

32883-32441 (65324)

ameisgoat11<$100

CA Grau

Invested

$6.85

Value

$6.35

PnL

-$0.5

Record

47%

2102-2381 (4483)

HRTradingCTR<$100

CS Cienciano

Invested

$4.37

Value

$4.27

PnL

-$0.1

Record

53%

3243-2909 (6152)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

CS Cienciano

Invested

$1.98

Value

$2.67

PnL

+$0.69

Record

50%

24471-24125 (48596)

Research grade

NeutralCA Grau at 87%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

CA Grau

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that CA Grau wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.