Will CS Cienciano win on 2026-10-28?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 66¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 29

Yes66¢No34¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

$51.14

Smart Money Entry

66¢ → 65.5¢

-1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes66%

No35%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$907.83

Total Shares1,769

Combined PnL+$323.76

Yes4 traders

Total Value$809.05

Total Shares1,625

Combined PnL-$272.61

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Yesavg 65¢	$2.5K	$2.3K	-$220.5	54% 55844-47942 (103786)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 65¢	$2.0K	$1.5K	-$502.44
└ No leg	Noavg 33¢	$502.92	$784.86	+$281.94
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 33¢	$559.48	$871.17	+$311.69	50% 24471-24125 (48596)
LU LuckyLoo	Yesavg 65.5¢	$1.0K	$753.5	-$264.36	49% 12209-12458 (24667)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Yesavg 78¢	$29.22	$24.22	-$5.01	50% 32883-32441 (65324)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Yesavg 78¢	$14.56	$18.73	+$4.17	59% 44789-31177 (75966)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Noavg 35¢	$10	$14.71	+$4.71	67% 23140-11541 (34681)
GA GamblingOdyssey<$100	Yesavg 77¢	$20.02	$12.61	-$7.41	51% 846-800 (1646)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Noavg 29¢	$9.79	$11.64	+$1.86	52% 5899-5543 (11442)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Noavg 24¢	$4.8	$10.3	+$5.5	47% 2102-2381 (4483)

RN1ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$2,481.2

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$220.5

Record

54%

55844-47942 (103786)

Both legs:

Yes$1,978.2865¢-$502.44

No$502.9233¢+$281.94

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$559.48

Value

$871.17

PnL

+$311.69

Record

50%

24471-24125 (48596)

LuckyLoo

Yes

Invested

$1,017.86

Value

$753.5

PnL

-$264.36

Record

49%

12209-12458 (24667)

SnakeBall<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.22

Value

$24.22

PnL

-$5.01

Record

50%

32883-32441 (65324)

UpTheBlues<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.56

Value

$18.73

PnL

+$4.17

Record

59%

44789-31177 (75966)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Invested

$10

Value

$14.71

PnL

+$4.71

Record

67%

23140-11541 (34681)

GamblingOdyssey<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.02

Value

$12.61

PnL

-$7.41

Record

51%

846-800 (1646)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Invested

$9.79

Value

$11.64

PnL

+$1.86

Record

52%

5899-5543 (11442)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Invested

$4.8

Value

$10.3

PnL

+$5.5

Record

47%

2102-2381 (4483)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 66%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.6%

65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$47.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

147.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.