Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (51%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
CD Moquegua vs. CD Los Chankas: O/U 2.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 49¢ · $967 held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 40%
$967.12
-$3.19
49¢ → 49¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 49%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 us391CTR | Underavg 49¢ | $545.8 | $556.94 | +$0 | 51% 1708-1674 (3382) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 51¢ | $250.19 | $245.49 | +$0.2 | 50% 25606-25439 (51045) |
 VeryLucky888 | Overavg 51¢ | $155.6 | $152.5 | -$3.1 | 58% 42612-31008 (73620) |
BE berlinskiesCTR<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $9.69 | $9.69 | -$0.19 | 58% 5885-4316 (10201) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Overavg 53¢ | $2.65 | $2.5 | -$0.1 | 52% 7480-6775 (14255) |
us391CTRInvested
$545.8
Value
$556.94
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
1708-1674 (3382)
Invested
$250.19
Value
$245.49
PnL
+$0.2
Record
50%
25606-25439 (51045)
VeryLucky888Invested
$155.6
Value
$152.5
PnL
-$3.1
Record
58%
42612-31008 (73620)
Invested
$9.69
Value
$9.69
PnL
-$0.19
Record
58%
5885-4316 (10201)
Invested
$2.65
Value
$2.5
PnL
-$0.1
Record
52%
7480-6775 (14255)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.