Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Club Universitario de Deportes win on 2026-11-01?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 0.1¢ · $665 held · ended Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
No
7
No 71%
2 arb excluded
$665.05
-$47.35
43¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1CTR | Noavg 56¢ | $230.72 | $226.6 | -$4.12 | 54% 57187-49444 (106631) |
TO topdogbigboi | Yesavg 61¢ | $144.43 | $177.93 | +$33.5 | 48% 8991-9637 (18628) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Noavg 36.6¢ | $160.48 | $76.46 | -$84.01 | 50% 25689-25525 (51214) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 36.6¢ | $123.48 | $38.82 | -$84.65 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 87¢ | $37 | $37.64 | +$0.64 | |
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Noavg 45.6¢ | $145.16 | $61.52 | -$83.64 | 59% 46944-33223 (80167) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 45.6¢ | $120.02 | $35.57 | -$84.45 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 83.8¢ | $25.14 | $25.95 | +$0.81 | |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Noavg 28.5¢ | $100.41 | $51.08 | -$49.33 | 49% 13032-13607 (26639) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Noavg 38.7¢ | $54.11 | $31.15 | -$22.96 | 50% 33888-33462 (67350) |
 poshposh<$100 | Yesavg 94¢ | $21.24 | $20.51 | -$0.73 | 58% 10691-7671 (18362) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Noavg 33.6¢ | $8.59 | $13.17 | -$0.54 | 52% 7507-6801 (14308) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 42.3¢ | $9.79 | $6.63 | -$3.17 | 53% 5677-5082 (10759) |
RN1CTRInvested
$230.72
Value
$226.6
PnL
-$4.12
Record
54%
57187-49444 (106631)
Invested
$144.43
Value
$177.93
PnL
+$33.5
Record
48%
8991-9637 (18628)
Invested
$160.48
Value
$76.46
PnL
-$84.01
Record
50%
25689-25525 (51214)
Both legs:
Invested
$145.16
Value
$61.52
PnL
-$83.64
Record
59%
46944-33223 (80167)
Both legs:
Invested
$100.41
Value
$51.08
PnL
-$49.33
Record
49%
13032-13607 (26639)
Invested
$54.11
Value
$31.15
PnL
-$22.96
Record
50%
33888-33462 (67350)
poshposh<$100Invested
$21.24
Value
$20.51
PnL
-$0.73
Record
58%
10691-7671 (18362)
Invested
$8.59
Value
$13.17
PnL
-$0.54
Record
52%
7507-6801 (14308)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$9.79
Value
$6.63
PnL
-$3.17
Record
53%
5677-5082 (10759)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.