Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (52%). 1 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Club Alianza Atlético win on 2026-10-31?
1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (13%) · Yes at 49¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
8
Yes 13%
$1.8K
$67.49
Research grade
NeutralYes at 49%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 8 top traders (13%)Underdog side (market favors No 52%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
14% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR | Yesavg 49¢ | $885.41 | $894.45 | +$9.03 | 55% 1747-1441 (3188) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 48.2¢ | $419.75 | $440.23 | +$20.48 | 50% 25208-24935 (50143) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 50¢ | $245.13 | $202 | -$3.92 | 58% 42027-30514 (72541) |
LE LeLynxMalynx | Noavg 43.4¢ | $142.74 | $171.08 | +$36.57 | 58% 28788-21225 (50013) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $29.58 | $29.29 | -$0.29 | 49% 12681-13099 (25780) |
 us391<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $25.5 | $25.25 | -$0.25 | 51% 1685-1650 (3335) |
SL slimjoe<$100 | Noavg 41¢ | $17.63 | $22.36 | +$6.02 | 51% 6505-6166 (12671) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Noavg 50.3¢ | $10.2 | $10.05 | -$0.15 | 48% 2424-2645 (5069) |
Invested
$885.41
Value
$894.45
PnL
+$9.03
Record
55%
1747-1441 (3188)
Invested
$419.75
Value
$440.23
PnL
+$20.48
Record
50%
25208-24935 (50143)
VeryLucky888Invested
$245.13
Value
$202
PnL
-$3.92
Record
58%
42027-30514 (72541)
Invested
$142.74
Value
$171.08
PnL
+$36.57
Record
58%
28788-21225 (50013)
Invested
$29.58
Value
$29.29
PnL
-$0.29
Record
49%
12681-13099 (25780)
us391<$100Invested
$25.5
Value
$25.25
PnL
-$0.25
Record
51%
1685-1650 (3335)
Invested
$17.63
Value
$22.36
PnL
+$6.02
Record
51%
6505-6166 (12671)
Invested
$10.2
Value
$10.05
PnL
-$0.15
Record
48%
2424-2645 (5069)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.